VN30 Futures Mispricing Research Project

Paper: “What Drives Futures Mispricing in a Frontier Market? Evidence from Vietnam’s VN30 Index Futures” Author: Solo (CFA, MBA, Engineer) Target: Emerging Markets Review (Q1) or RIBAF (Q1) Status: Proposal complete → Next: Data collection

Project Structure

vn30-mispricing-research/
├── README.md                  ← This file
├── proposal/
│   ├── research-proposal-v2.md    ← MAIN proposal (expanded: micro + manipulation + macro + geo)
│   └── research-proposal-v1-basic.md  ← Original basic version
├── literature/
│   └── literature-map.md         ← All papers found + gap analysis
├── data/                         ← Raw & processed data (to be collected)
├── code/                         ← Python scripts (to be written)
├── drafts/                       ← Paper drafts
└── notes/
    └── data-sources.md           ← Where to get each dataset

Research Questions

  1. How large is VN30F mispricing vs. cost-of-carry?
  2. Do arbitrage bounds get violated? Upper vs. lower?
  3. Is there expiry-day manipulation evidence?
  4. Do macro shocks & geopolitical panic drive mispricing?

Next Steps

  • Phase 1: Collect VN30F, VN30, interest rate, dividend, FX data
  • Phase 2: Code mispricing calculation in Python
  • Phase 3: Expiry-day anomaly analysis
  • Phase 4: Regression models (4 nested models)
  • Phase 5: Write paper
  • Phase 6: Submit to Emerging Markets Review